The figure below summarizes pricing data gathered for Forest2Market’s weekly lumber market report, Mill2Market. For this market report, Forest2Market aggregates sales order data submitted directly by report subscribers. This figure charts weekly sales order prices from January 2010 through the month of September 2012 and compares sales order data, FOB Mill on a volume weighted $/MBF basis. The prices in the figure are composite prices; they include dimension lumber, timbers and boards.
Forest2Market’s composite lumber price declined by 5 percent during the month of September. The composite price at the start of the month was $317/MBF (Week 36). Composite price experienced its largest weekly price change in the month during Week 37, as prices fell to $312/MBF, a 2 percent decrease. Composite price continued a downward trajectory the rest of the month, as prices declined to $307/MBF and $303/MBF in Weeks 38 and 39, respectively.
Sales order volume per mill fluctuated during September, but ended the month 2 percent below the end of August. Sales order volume per mill in Week 36 was the lowest weekly volume experienced since Week 22 in June. While sales order volume per mill rebounded in Week 36, it gradually declined for the remainder of the month.
A historical look shows that we continue to experience pricing that we have not seen in the month of September for the previous two years. While the lumber composite price trend is similar in nature to 2010, composite prices continue to remain about $55/MBF higher. Due to continued signs that a housing market recovery is underway, we do not expect prices to return to their 2010/2011 lows in the near term.
For Mill2Market, Forest2Market collects 100 percent of all transactions—both sales orders and invoices—from 100 percent of all its subscribers. All prices are reported not as simple averages, but as volume weighted averages. For instance, if one order included 10 MBF at $260 and another included 100 MBF at $280, instead of reporting the average price at $270, Forest2Market would report the volume weighted price of $278 per MBF.
Using this method, Mill2Market provides an analysis of the southern yellow pine market in two ways:
- A weekly market report that provides a real time description of how the market is operating in the current week. This report uses sales order information in order to capture the current market.
- A quarterly market report that provides a comparison of an individual subscriber’s performance against the market. This report reflects invoice data in order to accurately capture final price.
For more information, visit the Mill2Market page of our website, or call Bob Bratton at 980-233-4034.