menu-bgimg

What we can offer you

We provide detailed transactional data, cost benchmarks and in-depth analytics for participants in the wood raw materials supply chain.
  • Pricing Data
  • Benchmarks
  • Product Forecasting
  • Advisory Services
  • Analytics
Learn More

SilvaStat360 Platform

  • Price Benchmarks
  • Madison’s Lumber Reporter
  • The Beck Group’s Sawmill TQ
  • Timber Supply Analysis 
  • Global Economic Data

Explore Forest2Market's Interactive Business Intelligence Platform

Learn More

Industries

From biomass suppliers in the Baltics to pulp producers in Brazil and TIMOs in the United States, Forest2Market provides products and services for suppliers, producers and other stakeholders in the global forest products industry.

Learn More
x
 
Blog

US South Timber Prices: 1Q2018 Performance & Outlook

May 07, 2018
Author: Gabe Rogers

US South timber prices during 1Q2018 were mixed. Pulpwood products increased slightly and pine log products decreased, but the general trend of timber prices was downward in 1Q (-6 percent).

Pulpwood

On a Southwide basis, pine pulpwood prices remained flat at $10.22/ton during 1Q2018 (+0.1 percent), although two out of three regions experienced price increases for pine pulpwood. The Mid-South experienced the largest increase to $9.32/ton, or +9.4 percent. The East-South rose to $13.11/ton, an increase of +1.3 percent, and the West-South decreased to $7.80/ton, or -5.1 percent.

Southwide hardwood pulpwood prices increased in 1Q, rising to $8.74/ton (+14.8 percent). The West-South region experienced the largest surge to $11.30/ton, or +24.4 percent. The East-South rose to $4.49/ton (+19.1 percent), and the Mid-South increased to $10.01/ton (+10.5 percent).

TimberPrices_May18_1

 

The reason hardwood pulpwood prices appreciated this period while pine pulpwood prices stayed relatively stable lies in mill inventory numbers, which are available in Forest2Market's Delivered Fiber360 tab via SilvaStat360.

In the West-South, mill inventory was 24 days lower in March 2018 than it was in March 2017, or 17 days below the market average days of inventory. In this context, a 24 percent increase in price is understandable. By contrast, pine inventories have been relatively stable in the West-South over the last 15 months, leading to more stable pricing.

While pine pulpwood inventories are a little less stable in both the Mid-South and the East-South, hardwood pulpwood inventories are also below the market average in March 2018 (8 and 3 days respectively).

 

TimberPrices_May18_2

 

Pine Logs

Pine chip-n-saw prices dropped to $17.86/ton, a reduction of -0.9 percent Southwide. The West-South and East-South regions experienced a decrease, as prices dropped to $13.98/ton (-8.7 percent) and $20.35/ton (-4.0 percent). Prices in the Mid-South region surged to $17.62/ton, a +6.1 percent increase.

Pine sawtimber prices dropped -1.1 percent to a Southwide average of $25.28/ton. Mid-South pine sawtimber prices rose to $25.17/ton (+5.0 percent), and East-South were up slightly to $26.18/ton (+0.8 percent). Prices in the West-South dropped considerably to $24.46/ton (-15.0 percent).

TimberPrices_May18_3

Outlook

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in 1Q2018 according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, beating its projected forecast of 2.0 percent. Fresh data from the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow model estimates that real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in 2Q2018 will be 4.1 percent. Based on recent construction spending information published by the U.S. Census Bureau, the Atlanta FED’s “nowcast” forecast of 2Q real non-residential structures investment increased from 2.9 percent to 5.3 percent, and the nowcast of real residential investment decreased from 3.5 percent to 2.9 percent.

Housing starts appear to be trending at a slow increase, and lumber prices remain at record highs amid strong demand. As Canadian producers continue to expand operations in the US South, demand for sawtimber logs in the region will remain robust. Despite the oversupply of large logs available on the market, we look for stumpage prices to tick upwards through 3Q.

 Get fair market value for your timber

Back to Blog

You May Also be Interested In

November 18, 2019
Pine Pulpwood: Driving the Southern Timber Price Rebound
We are more than a decade removed from the depths of the Great Recession and despite 10 years of solid growth,...
Continue Reading
November 14, 2019
Surplus of Beetle-Damaged Timber Impacting European Forest Industry
Over the last several decades, a combination of devastating wildfires and pest infestations have destroyed millions...
Continue Reading
November 13, 2019
Southern Timber Prices Continued to Slide in 3Q2019
After skyrocketing in 1Q2019 due to prolonged wet-weather challenges, southern timber prices reversed course sharply...
Continue Reading