Our approach to forecasting macroeconomic indicators is to rely on the data. Instead of including outside analysts’ views of where the economy is headed and attempting to predict global economic, political, and legislative outcomes, our model focuses on letting the data speak for itself. Once these events show up in the actual data, they are incorporated into the forecast model.
The forecast employs univariate and multivariate time series models and macroeconomic theories to estimate and predict ten key macroeconomic indicators (listed on the CONTENTS tab).
Recent data and the forecast model make the numbers reported every month representative of the most likely outcome over the forecast period. However, we also recognize there are considerable risks to the economy that may not yet be represented in the raw data and model.