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GLOBAL WOOD
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CHAIN EXPERTS

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TIMBER SUPPLY ANALYSIS 360

"The interest in investment in forests and forest products industries in Brazil and the rest of Latin America is growing. A persistent obstacle to securing these investments is the lack of data quantifying forest resources. To support their decisions, investors require assurances that markets for timber will exist when timber is ready to harvest or that timber supply is robust enough to support ongoing operations once a manufacturing facility is built. By using proprietary change detection algorithms and satellite imagery to develop age class profiles of forests, Forest2Market do Brasil continues to support the development of the forest products industry. Timber Supply Analysis 360 brings transparency and visibility to Brazil's forest resources and gives the industry data it can rely on to make multimillion-dollar decisions with confidence."

--Marcelo Schmid, Director of Forest2Market do Brasil

Issues

  • Due to the lack of a national forest inventory in Brazil, projections of forest inventory are impossible; in addition, little data is available on wood fiber demand, current supply and price.
  • This lack of visibility and transparency impairs the industry’s ability to plan ahead and sub-optimizes decision making.

Conclusion

Operators and investors in Brazil’s forests and forest products industries require visibility into the fiber supply.

The Solution

In order to forecast timber supply and price in the United States, Forest2Market developed a long-term forest level resource planning tools based on:

  • Forest-wide inventories
  • Local log and fiber pricing
  • Local demand
  • Forest growth and yield models

Forest2Market do Brasil has replicated these datasets for Brazil with the introduction of Timber Supply Analysis 360.

  • The Timber Supply Analysis 360 inventory tool provides access to current inventory in Mato Grosso do Sul, Minas Gerais, Paraná, and Santa Catarina.
  • The data and market information Forest2Market do Brasil  available in Timber Supply Analysis 360 are the basis for Forest2Market do Brasil's forecasts of forest inventory, supply/demand and prices for customized areas.

Data 

1. Select a geography on the mapping tool, which contains mill data
2. Select the inventory data you want to see:
  • Area by age class
  • Volume by age class
  • Volume by product class
  • Site index by age class
  • Mean annual increment
  • Trees per hectare
  • Basal area
  • Dominant tree height
  • Average tree diameter

 

Methodology

Inventory 
  • Proprietary change detection algorithms are coupled with satellite imagery to develop the age class profile of planted forest.
  • Volume per hectare is applied based on stand age, site quality and species (pine or eucalyptus).

Forecasts

  • Demand is applied based on local consumption.
  • Growth and yield models simulate forest growth in a geographic basin, while demand is satisfied by harvest removals.

The result is a highly precise and accurate forecast of forest inventory, supply/ demand and prices.

Use Cases

  • Either because of expansion (installing a new pulp line, for instance) or because a new facility is announced in its supply area, a pulp mill is concerned that new demand will drive up prices in its local market.
  • Pulp mill is currently oversupplied and needs to know if this is a short- or long-term issue.
    • If short, no action required.
    • If long, mill might choose to sell timberland and redeploy capital.
  • Timberland investor is contemplating purchase and needs to understand forward price risk.
  • Timberland investor is making a hold or sell decision and needs to understand forward demand, supply and price.
  • Timberland manager is deciding what species to plant post-harvest and needs to understand demand by product and gaps that exist in supply.
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